Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 September 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Low-level B-class x-ray flares occurred during the period. Region 1566 (N23W76 - Hrx/alpha) produced occasional B-class flares as it approached the west limb. Occasional B-class flares also occurred from a yet-to-be-numbered small spot group that rotated into view late in the period. Region 1569 (S12W00 - Eao/beta-gamma) showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion and retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1572 (N15W70 - Axx/alpha) was numbered. There was no Earth-directed CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low during days 1 - 3 (16 - 18 September) with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels around midday on day 1 (16 September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the CME associated with the filament disappearance observed on 13 September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (17 September) as CME effects subside. A further decrease to quiet levels is expected on day 3 (18 September).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Sep 098
  Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        15 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  011/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm30%10%05%

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