Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Low-level B-class x-ray
flares occurred during the period. Region 1566 (N23W76 - Hrx/alpha)
produced occasional B-class flares as it approached the west limb.
Occasional B-class flares also occurred from a yet-to-be-numbered
small spot group that rotated into view late in the period. Region
1569 (S12W00 - Eao/beta-gamma) showed minor spot growth in its
trailer portion and retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
New Region 1572 (N15W70 - Axx/alpha) was numbered. There was no
Earth-directed CME activity observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (16 - 18 September) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled levels around midday on day 1 (16
September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the
CME associated with the filament disappearance observed on 13
September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (17 September) as CME effects subside. A
further decrease to quiet levels is expected on day 3 (18
September).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 098 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 011/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
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