Viewing archive of Friday, 14 September 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2012 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 1569 (S12E14) produced occasional B-class flares. It showed a slight decrease in intermediate spots, but retained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No significant changes were observed in the remaining spotted regions. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (15 - 17 September) with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (15 September) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. A further increase to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (16 September) with a chance for active levels due to the arrival of the CME associated with the filament disappearance on 13 September. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (17 September).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 101
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  009/010-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%10%
Minor storm01%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm15%30%20%
Major-severe storm05%30%10%

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