Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S11, L=072), which
rotated around the west limb yesterday, produced the largest event,
a long duration C2 event at 13/0508Z. Region 1569 (S13E27) increased
in magnetic complexity and is now considered a beta-gamma type
group. A filament eruption occurred near N22W20 at approximately
05/0640Z. The associated CME had an estimated speed of 536 km/s.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(14-16 September), mainly from Region 1569.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period observed from 13/0000-0300Z. Solar wind speeds increased from
approximately 290 km/s to 400 km/s due to the effects of a weak
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (14 September). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two (15 September) due to effects
from another CH HSS. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled
levels on day three (16 September) with a chance for active periods
due the arrival of the CME associated with todays filament
eruption.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 099 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 005/005-009/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
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