Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1564 (S11W82)
was the most active region with several C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C6/Sf at 10/2356Z. Regions 1567 (N16W02) and 1569
(S12E53) also contributed to the C-class flare activity. Region
1567 decayed throughout the period. There was no Earth directed CME
activity during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the first day (12
September). M-class probability is expected to decrease for the
second and third days (13-14 September) as Region 1564 rotates out
of view.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet with a slight chance for unsettled levels on
days 1 and 2 (12-13 September). An increase to quiet to unsettled
levels with a slight chance for an active period is expected on the
third day (14 September) due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 105 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 105/100/095 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 004/005-004/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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