Viewing archive of Friday, 7 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N05W89) and 1562
(S20W63) each produced a few low-level C flares. Region 1562
continued to grow in areal coverage overnight. New Region 1567
(N17E56) was numbered today. The region is a simple Bxo-beta type
spot group. All other regions on the disk were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity for the next
three days (08-10 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly quiet for the next three days (08-10
September).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 133 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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