Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1560 (N04W73 -
Eai/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 06/0413Z as
well as occasional low-level C-class flares. No obvious changes were
noted in Region 1560, but limb proximity hampered analysis. Region
1564 (S14W13 - Esi/beta) also produced occasional low-level C-class
flares. It showed minor spot and penumbral growth in its interior
portion. Region 1562 (S22W48 - Dso/beta) showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period. No new regions were numbered. No
Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (07 - 09 September) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare on day 1. There will be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class flare during days 2 - 3.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 06/0000 - 0300Z due to periods of southward
IMF Bz and enhanced IMF Bt associated with a solar sector boundary
change. Field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels after
06/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September) with a chance for unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 128 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 024/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 007/008-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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