Viewing archive of Friday, 17 August 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. An M2 flare was observed on the northeast limb at 17/1319Z. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery emerging from the northeast limb around 17/1354Z. An M1 flare followed at 17/1720Z from the same vicinity. The M1 flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (140sfu). New region 1547 (N05E21) was numbered today and classified as a Cso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1543 (N24W59) remained the largest group on the disk and was classified as a Cko type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed during the 00-03Z synoptic period. The remainder of the day saw quiet to active conditions. The active period was associated with effects from a CME which occurred on 13 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20 August) with lingering effects from a CME and the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
Class M10%15%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Aug 095
  Predicted   18 Aug-20 Aug  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        17 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Aug  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug  009/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm15%30%30%
Major-severe storm05%25%25%

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