Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 August 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N22W48) produced a C3 flare at 16/1316Z. This flare was accompanied by Type II (704 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions and a coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME was first visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 16/1409Z and was estimated to be moving at around 330 km/s. Analysis is underway to determine if it will be geoeffective. Region 1543 ended the period as an Hhx group with alpha magnetic characteristics. New Region 1546 (N16E69) was numbered today as a simple Hsx group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (17-19 August). There is a slight chance for an M-class flare on day 3 (19 August) as old Region 1532 (S16, L=185) returns.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during the period. A weak impulse was indicated at several geomagnetic observatories at around 16/1321Z. Earlier, around 13/1223Z, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field at the ACE spacecraft turned southward to approximately -6 nT. It remained mostly southward for the remainder of the period. The shift in Bz and the subsequent impulse at earth were consistent with the arrival of the CME from 13 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (17-20 August), with a chance for active levels. The disturbed conditions on days 1-2 (17-18 August) are expected with the arrival of the CME from 14 August. The disturbed conditions on day 3 (19 August) are expected with the arrival of a positive coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 098
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  100/095/090
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  010/012-009/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm20%15%30%
Major-severe storm15%05%25%

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