Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N22W48) produced
a C3 flare at 16/1316Z. This flare was accompanied by Type II (704
km/s) and Type IV radio emissions and a coronal mass ejection (CME).
The CME was first visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 16/1409Z and
was estimated to be moving at around 330 km/s. Analysis is underway
to determine if it will be geoeffective. Region 1543 ended the
period as an Hhx group with alpha magnetic characteristics. New
Region 1546 (N16E69) was numbered today as a simple Hsx group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (17-19 August). There is a slight chance
for an M-class flare on day 3 (19 August) as old Region 1532 (S16,
L=185) returns.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during
the period. A weak impulse was indicated at several geomagnetic
observatories at around 16/1321Z. Earlier, around 13/1223Z, the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field at the ACE spacecraft
turned southward to approximately -6 nT. It remained mostly
southward for the remainder of the period. The shift in Bz and the
subsequent impulse at earth were consistent with the arrival of the
CME from 13 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(17-20 August), with a chance for active levels. The disturbed
conditions on days 1-2 (17-18 August) are expected with the arrival
of the CME from 14 August. The disturbed conditions on day 3 (19
August) are expected with the arrival of a positive coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 098 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 010/012-009/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 25% |
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