Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14W46) produced
the largest event of the period, a C1/1f flare at 14/2232Z. Region
1543 (N21W34) is the largest region on the disk and showed little
change while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (16 - 18 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for active
conditions on day 1 (16 August) due to effects from the 13 August
CME. Unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm
conditions are expected on Day 2 (17 August) due to effects from the
14 August CME. Quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions are expected on Day 3 (18 August) as effects of
the CME begin to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 101 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 007/010-010/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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