Viewing archive of Monday, 13 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1543 (N20W05) produced
the largest event of the period, a C2 flare at 13/1240Z, with
associated Type II (estimated velocity of 736 km/s) and Type IV
radio sweeps. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness of a possible CME associated with this flare as
more data becomes available. Region 1543 also produced a C1/Sf at
13/0413Z, with an associated Type IV radio sweep. Regions 1543 and
1542 (S12W18) were generally unchanged and have beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for an active
period on day 1 (14 August) due to a high speed stream from a
coronal hole. Days 2 and 3 (15 - 16 August) are expected to be at
predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 108 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 009/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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