Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1542 (S13W04) produced a B8/Sf at 12/1344Z, and several other Sf optical flares throughout the period. Region 1543 (N20E07) remained the largest region on the disk. Both Regions 1542 and 1543 ended the period with beta-gamma magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A solar sector boundary change, from positive to negative occurred at approximately 12/1330Z. Wind speed at the ACE spacecraft rose from approximatly 300 km/s at the beginning of the period to end near 400 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly negative from 11/21Z to 12/06Z, then ranged from +/- 5nT for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for an active period, for days 1 and 2 (13-14 August) before becoming mostly quiet on day 3 (15 August). The increased activity on the first two days is expected from the influence of a weak high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
Class M15%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Aug 112
  Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  115/110/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  008/008-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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