Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1540 (S25W50)
produced a long duration M1/2n flare at 11/1220Z. A faint CME was
first observed in LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the southwest at
11/1325Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness. Region 1542 (S31W33) produced a C2/1f flare at
11/1642Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(12-14 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field shifted southward to around -5nT
beginning at 11/08Z and remained there through the period. Solar
wind speed remained between 300-350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods, for the next three days (12-14 August).
The elevated activity is associated with the arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 120 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 010/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
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