Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 August 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1540 (S25W50) produced a long duration M1/2n flare at 11/1220Z. A faint CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery emerging from the southwest at 11/1325Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness. Region 1542 (S31W33) produced a C2/1f flare at 11/1642Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days (12-14 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field shifted southward to around -5nT beginning at 11/08Z and remained there through the period. Solar wind speed remained between 300-350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active periods, for the next three days (12-14 August). The elevated activity is associated with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
Class M 15%15%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Aug 120
  Predicted    12 Aug-14 Aug  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        11 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Aug  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  010/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 25%25%15%

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