Viewing archive of Friday, 10 August 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Two C-class events were observed from Region 1542 (S16E24); the largest was a C4/Sf at 10/0416Z. Region 1544 (S29W20) also produced a C2/Sf flare at 10/1740Z. Region 1543 (N21E33) was the largest region on the disk and produced some B-class events during the period. The remaining regions were quiet and stable, with no significant changes since yesterday. No earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1542.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft remained near 350 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly neutral.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance for an isolated active period for days 1 and 2 (11-12 August). This elevated activity is expected in response to the arrival of a corotating interaction region and coronal hole, coupled with two filaments that lifted off on 07 and 08 August. On day 3 (13 August) conditions are expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Aug 125
  Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        10 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  008/008-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm25%25%05%

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