Viewing archive of Friday, 10 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Two C-class events were
observed from Region 1542 (S16E24); the largest was a C4/Sf at
10/0416Z. Region 1544 (S29W20) also produced a C2/Sf flare at
10/1740Z. Region 1543 (N21E33) was the largest region on the disk
and produced some B-class events during the period. The remaining
regions were quiet and stable, with no significant changes since
yesterday. No earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 1542.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft remained near 350 km/s and the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly neutral.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight chance
for an isolated active period for days 1 and 2 (11-12 August). This
elevated activity is expected in response to the arrival of a
corotating interaction region and coronal hole, coupled with two
filaments that lifted off on 07 and 08 August. On day 3 (13 August)
conditions are expected to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 125 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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