Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. New Region 1544 (S30W06) was
the most active region on the solar disk, producing three C-class
flares. However, Region 1542 (S14E37) produced the largest flare of
the period, a C8 x-ray flare, at 09/1147Z. Further analysis will be
conducted to determine the geoeffectiveness of any CMEs associated
with this flare as more data becomes available.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 09/0000Z-0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet on day one (10 Aug). Days two and three
(Aug 11-12) are expected to be quiet to unsettled due to the effects
of the interaction between the two filaments that lifted off the
solar disk on 07 and 08 Aug and the corotating interaction region
ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 131 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 006/005-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
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