Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 August 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1542 (S14E50) remained
the most active region on the solar disk, producing seven C-class
flares. The largest of these flares was a C4/Sf flare that occurred
at 08/1132Z. A large portion of a filament erupted from the
southwest quadrant beginning around 08/0200Z. A slow coronal mass
ejection (CME) (estimated plane-of-sky speed 346 km/s) was first
observed off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0612Z and
was likely associated with the filament eruption. The bulk of the
CME material did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an active period
from 08/0000-0300Z. Indications of a solar sector boundary crossing
were evident on the ACE spacecraft as sustained southward IMF Bz and
enhanced IMF Bt occurred prior to the active period. ACE EPAM data
indicated the beginning of a slow rise in energetic particles at
approximately 08/1200Z. This rise is likely associated with the
anticipated glancing blow from the 04 Aug CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated
active to minor storm periods early on day one (09 Aug). Activity
should return to quiet to unsettled late in the day as effects of
the CME wane. Days two and three (10 and 11 Aug) are expected to be
at predominately quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 133 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 011/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug to 11 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
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