Viewing archive of Friday, 27 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Sympathetic activity between Regions 1530 (S19E28) and 1532 (S20E53) produced a M2/1f x-ray event at 1726Z on 27 July. The event was accompanied by a Tenflare (340 sfu), type II and IV radio sweeps. The type II was reported with an estimated speed of 2099 km/s, however a radial speed estimate of the CME obtained from STEREO B coronagraph was measured near 500 km/s. Initial analysis suggests that the transient will not likely have a geoeffective trajectory. New Region 1533 (S28E18) developed today and was numbered. There were some preliminary observations indicating a new region (not yet numbered) rotating onto the disk in the southern hemisphere, behind Region 1532.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels for the next 3 days (28-30 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on day 1 (28 July) as the onset of coronal hole (CH) high speed stream effects are forecasted. The field should remain mostly unsettled on day 2 (29 July) with possible nighttime active levels from substorms. Conditions should recover from unsettled to active levels to mostly quiet on day 3 (30 July) as CH effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Jul 123
  Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        27 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  008/012-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%45%25%
Minor storm05%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%65%30%

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