Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. The only C-class flare of the
reporting period was a C1 at 26/1953Z from new Region 1532 (S20E67).
New flux emergence was observed in the northwest quadrant and was
numbered as Region 1531 (N15W59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 23/1545Z, reached a
maximum flux of 12 pfu at 23/2145Z and ended at 24/1800Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day 1 (27 July). By mid to late on day 2
(28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is
expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active periods.
Unsettled to active periods are expected on day 3 (29 July) due to
the combined effects of the CH HSS and the 25 July coronal mass
ejection.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 115 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 000/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-011/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 30% | 50% |
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