Viewing archive of Monday, 23 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Regions 1527 (N27E64) and 1529 (S12E71) produced the only C-class flares for the period: a C2/1f flare at 23/1127Z and a C1 flare at 23/1700Z, respectively. New Region 1528 (N17E67) was also numbered. Two CMEs were observed overnight in LASCO C2 imagery. The first was associated with a filament eruption beyond the northwest limb beginning at 22/1248Z and the second, an asymmetric full-halo associated with flare activity from old Region 1520 (S16, L=086) approximately 40 degrees beyond the west limb beginning at 23/0236Z. These CMEs are not expected to disturb the geomagnetic field.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the forecast period (24 - 26 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with intervals of active to minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes between 23/1200 - 1800Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 23/1545Z. A maximum of 12 pfu was reached at 23/1700Z with flux levels still above threshold as of this report. An enhancement of the greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was on-going as well. The proton event is likely associated with flare activity from old Region 1520 that occurred at approximately 23/0235Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods on day 1 (24 July) due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (25 July) as effects begin to diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (26 July).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton30%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jul 097
  Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  100/105/110
  90 Day Mean        23 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  007/015-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm35%05%05%

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