Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. The four numbered sunspot regions remained stable and
quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (22-24 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
indicated speeds above nominal levels ranging from 400-520 km/s. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event observed at geosynchronous orbit
that began at 17/1715Z ended early in the period at 21/0310Z. Peak
flux levels observed with this event were 136 pfu at 18/0600Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods for the next three days (22-24 July) as a coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 090 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 008/010-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
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