Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 July 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The four numbered sunspot regions remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (22-24 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated speeds above nominal levels ranging from 400-520 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event observed at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/1715Z ended early in the period at 21/0310Z. Peak flux levels observed with this event were 136 pfu at 18/0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods for the next three days (22-24 July) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 090
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  008/010-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%35%35%
Major-severe storm35%35%35%

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