Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 July 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1520 (S17W48) remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk, however it has remained rather stable and quiet. Regions 1521 (S21W60) and 1519 (S17W68) have been the most active regions producing low level C-class events. Both regions have shown moderate growth in sunspot area and magnetic complexity. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (16-18 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. These elevated levels can be attributed to continuing CME effects. Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed variable IMF total field strength and occasional negative Bz early in the period. Around 0600Z, total IMF peaked around 28 nT, with the Bz component reaching a maximum deflection of -18 nT. These levels remained almost constant and elevated throughout the remainder of the summary period. Multiple major to severe storm periods at high latitudes with minor to major storm periods at mid latitudes were observed during the period, due to the 16 hours of sustained negative Bz coupled with elevated (500-600 km/s) solar wind speeds.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 July) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on days two and three (17-18 July).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 141
  Predicted    16 Jul-18 Jul  135/130/120
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  011/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  032/049
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  013/018-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%05%05%
Minor storm 10%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%10%10%
Major-severe storm 40%05%05%

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