Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1515 (S17W36) produced
an M6/1b at 05/1144Z along with several low-level M-class flares.
The region continued to grow slightly in areal coverage and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W52) grew as well but did not produce any further M-class
activity since yesterdays report.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period due to residual effects from a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS). Solar wind speed decreased throughout the period to
approximately 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (06-07 July) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions are
likely on day three (08 July), with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods, due to effects from the CME associated with the M1/2n
flare observed at 04/1639Z from Region 1513.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 165 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 009/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 009/008-007/012-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 30% | 55% |
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