Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S16W10) remained the predominant flare producer with an M2/Sf flare at 02/2356Z and frequent C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 03/0342Z associated with a 260 sfu Tenflare. This region, classified as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta, remained large and magnetically complex with delta magnetic configurations within its interior and trailer spots. Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were associated with flare activity in Region 1515, but the bulk of the ejecta was directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. Region 1513 (N16W22) retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and displayed no significant changes during the period. It produced isolated C-class flares including a C8/Sf at 03/1441Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity 1064 km/s). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate through the period (04 - 06 July) with more M-class flares expected from Region 1515.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a negative-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds were in the 504 to 715 km/s range with a gradual decreasing trend. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was variable in the +4/-4 nT range. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (04 - 06 July) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS effects. Recent CME activity from Region 1515 is not expected to significantly disturb the geomagnetic field.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jul 146
  Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        03 Jul 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  018/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jul  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  007/008-007/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm30%30%05%

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