Viewing archive of Monday, 2 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17E04) produced an impulsive M5/2b flare at 02/1052Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 1063 km/s), a 380 sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) with most of the mass directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. It also produced an impulsive M3/2b flare at 02/2007Z associated with a 190 sfu Tenflare. This region remained large and magnetically complex (beta-gamma-delta). Region 1513 (N16W09) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 02/0035Z as well as frequent B- and C-class flares. Gradual spot growth was noted in its intermediate and trailer portions and it retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (03 - 05 July) with M-class flares expected from Regions 1513 and 1515.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels with minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes. This activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). ACE data indicated solar wind speeds in the 580 - 722 km/s range with no discernible trend. IMF Bz was variable and ranged from +6 nT to -5 nT. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux (166 sfu) was flare-enhanced due to the M3/2b at 02/2007Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 July) as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (04 - 05 July) as CH HSS effects gradually subside. The CME associated with todays M5/2b flare is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jul 166
  Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  020/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  020/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  013/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%25%25%

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