Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S16W65) produced a C1 flare at 19/1335Z which was the largest event of the period. New Region 1510 (S16E02) was numbered today and is a small bi-polar group. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet on 20-22 June.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M15%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 110
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  100/090/090
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  013/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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