Viewing archive of Monday, 18 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S15W53) produced
a few low level C-flares, the largest of which was a C1/Sf at
17/2139Z. Region 1504 decreased in total area and ended the day at
690 millionths. Regions 1505 (S13W53) and Region 1506 (N08W42)
showed signs of decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Active levels were reached at the beginning of the period from
17/2100Z to 18/0300Z. Minor storm levels were reached from 18/0300Z
to 18/0600Z. This elevated activity was due to persistent effects
from the 13 and 14 June CMEs. The remainder of the period showed a
steady decline to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (19 June). Quiet levels
are expected on 20 - 21 June.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 118 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 115/110/095 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 036/055 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 008/010-006/006-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
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