Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S17W39) produced a few C-class flares during the last part of the period. The largest flare was a C3/Sf at 17/1740Z. Region 1504 fluctuated in area, ending the period at about 820 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity ranged from active to major storm levels due to CME effects. A magnetopause crossing was observed by the GOES 15 satellite from around 16/2200Z to 16/2300Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 16/1955Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu at 16/2020Z and ended at 16/2255Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods on day 1 (18 June) and continue to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (19 June) as CME effects subside. On day 3 (20 June), a chance for unsettled activity is expected due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 124
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  019/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  026/038
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  014/022-008/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm40%30%20%

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