Viewing archive of Monday, 11 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1507 (S26E17) was the
most active region of the period, producing several C-flares. The
largest of these was a C1/Sf at 1903Z. Region 1504 (S17E40) is the
largest group on the disk and managed to produce a C-class flare.
Regions 1504 and 1507 are both growing steadily. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely with
Regions 1504 and 1507 the most probable source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled. Minor storm
levels were observed at high latitudes during 10/0600Z to 10/0900Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (12 June). An increase
in activity is expected mid-day due to a glancing blow from a CME
observed on 08 June. Activity is expected to return to quiet
partway through day 2 (13 June) as the effects of the CME subside.
Activity is expected to remain quiet on day 3 (14 June).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 134 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 007/008-006/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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