Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1496 (N16E33) produced an impulsive M3 flare at 03/1755Z. The flare was accompanied by a Tenflare (320 sfu) at 03/1753Z. A Type II emission (est 1077 km/s) was also reported at 03/1759Z. A CME was later observed in LASCO C3 imagery departing the northeast limb at 03/1854Z. Earlier in the day, C3 imagery showed a CME departing the southeast limb at 03/1342Z associated with a filament eruption. Analysis is underway to determine the potential geoeffectiveness of the CMEs. New Region 1499 (N16E50) was numbered today as a small Dso type group with beta magnetic characteristics. All regions on the disk were classified as simple alpha or beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a chance for an M-class flare for the next three days (04-06 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Although the solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft remained below 400 km/s for most of the period, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remaind southward from approximately 03/0400Z until about 02/1730Z, ranging from -5 nT to as low as -15 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with an active period from 03/12-15Z and a minor storm period from 03/15-18Z. Conditions returned to active levels for the last period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels for days one and two (4-5 June) with a chance for isolated minor storm periods. Day three (6 June) is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to be in a geoeffective position throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 129
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  014/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  014/020-014/027-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%60%55%

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