Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. New
Regions 1493 (N15E64) and 1494 (S16E69) were numbered overnight and
have each produced several low-level C-class x-ray events. New
Region 1495 (S12E19) was also numbered today but has not produced
any flare activity as of yet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (01 - 03 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (01 - 02 June).
Quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active
periods are expected late on day three (03 June) due to the
anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 May 117 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 31 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 004/005-004/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
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