Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
were observed during the period. New Region 1490 (S12E58) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (25-27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
isolated unsettled period overnight between 24/03-06Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (25 May). A weak enhancement in
activity of unsettled to active conditions is possible on day 2 (26
May) as the result of CME effects from the event on 22 May.
Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet for day 3 (27
May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 116 Predicted 25 May-27 May 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 24 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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