Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1484 (N11W56) produced
a C1/Sf flare at 23/0027Z. Region 1484 decayed slightly in its
leader and intermediate spots. Slight growth was observed in Region
1483 (S24W79) as it approached the west limb. New Region 1489
(S30E40) was numbered today. The rest of the spotted regions showed
no significant changes. No earth directed CMEs were observed during
the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the
forecast period (24 - 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storming. Early on
23 May, solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from
approximately 430 km/s to 630 km/s while the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) fluctuated between +/- 10 nT. The geomagnetic field
responded with active to minor storm periods between 23/0000 -
0900Z. By about 23/0600Z, total field strength decreased to
approximately 4 - 5 nT while the Bz component remained mostly
positive. Solar wind speed remained fairly steady around 580 km/s
to 600 km/s through the end of the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for further active
periods on day 1 (24 May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
day 2 (25 May). On day 3 (26 May), quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected with a chance for isolated active periods around
mid-day as a glancing blow from the 22 May CME is possible.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 117 Predicted 24 May-26 May 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 23 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 010/010-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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