Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 May 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1484 (N10W43) had slight growth in its intermediate spots. Region 1482 (N14W71) had slight decay in its trailing spots. New Region 1488 (N12E55) was numbered today. At approximately 22/0205Z, a filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant near center disk. STEREO B COR 2 imagery showed a faint CME that appeared to be slightly south of the ecliptic beginning at 22/0609Z. Further analysis is on-going to determine the geoeffectiveness of this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the forecast period (23 - 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Early on 22 May, solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from approximately 360 km/s to 420 km/s. Temperature and total magnetic field also displayed a slight increase as a coronal hole high speed stream moved into geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field responded with active periods during the intervals 22/0300 - 0600Z and 22/1800 - 2100Z. Minor storm intervals were observed at high latitudes from 22/1200 - 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a continued chance for active periods on day 1 (23 May) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (24 May) as the CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 121
  Predicted    23 May-25 May  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        22 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  013/014-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%05%
Minor storm 15%01%01%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm 20%05%05%
Major-severe storm 15%01%01%

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