Viewing archive of Monday, 21 May 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the forecast period (22 - 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 21/1844Z. An associated sudden impulse of 34 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 21/1937Z. The geomagnetic field responded with an active period between 21/1800 - 2100Z. This activity was likely attributable to the arrival of the 18 May CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods on days 1-2 (22 - 23 May) as recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS) move into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (24 May) as effects of the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 May 125
  Predicted   22 May-24 May  125/125/120
  90 Day Mean        21 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 May  012/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 May  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  010/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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