Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few weak C-class flares
were observed from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180) and Region 1479
(N15W39). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days 1 -
3 (20 - 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/0210Z and reached a
peak flux of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, ended at 18/1620Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (20 May). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (21 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on day 3 (22 May)
as a coronal hole high speed stream and the 18 May CME are expected
to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 131 Predicted 20 May-22 May 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 19 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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