Viewing archive of Monday, 14 May 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N09W46) remains the largest and most active complex on the solar disk, but has also shown signs of decay. Two CMEs were observed off the east limb during the period, but neither appears to have a potential earthward component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very low to low during the period. A slight chance for an M-class flare exists and will likely remain so, until Region 1476 either rotates off the west limb or exhibits further decay.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with intermittent active periods observed during nighttime (North America) hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (15 May), with the anticipated arrival of a CME observed on 12 May. Residual unsettled conditions are possible on day 2 (16 May), before a full recovery to mostly quiet conditions is forecast for day 3 (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 130
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  130/130/128
  90 Day Mean        14 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  010/012-008/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%10%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm20%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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