Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N11W18) continues to be the source region for a
majority of the flares, producing nine C-class flares, the largest
of which was a C3 that occurred at 11/2302Z. This region has shown
some signs of decay, but maintains an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration. A full halo CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at
12/0000Z. Preliminary analysis indicated the edge of the CME may
skirt the earth, but no major impacts are expected.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with isolated M-class flares for the next
three days (13-15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours with periods of active levels at high latitudes . The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (13 May),
then fall to quiet levels on day two (14 May). Day three is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
levels due to the potential glancing blow from todays CME.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 130 Predicted 13 May-15 May 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 12 May 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 007/008-006/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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