Viewing archive of Friday, 11 May 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours with several C-class x-ray flares. Region 1476 (N10W06) was the source for nearly all of the reported flares, with the largest being a C6 that occurred at 11/1738Z. This region has remained mostly consistent as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta spot group, but has shown some signs of decay, mainly in the trailer spots. New Regions 1479 (N15E65) and 1480 (S16W10) were numbered over the last 24 hours, are Hsx/Axx classifications respectively, and have yet to show much activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class x-ray flares for the next three days (12 - 14 May) as Region 1476 keeps its Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE spacecraft, showed a fairly steady drop in speeds from approximately 650 km/s down to approximately 550 km/s. The effects of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) should begin to wane over the next 24-48hrs. The total IMF remains fairly stable at approximately 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (12-13 May), then return to quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 May 136
  Predicted   12 May-14 May  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        11 May 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 May  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

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