Viewing archive of Monday, 7 May 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Even though Region 1476 (N10E48) is the largest, 810 Millionths, and most magnetically complex, Fkc/beta-gamma; todays only M-class event came from the sunspot cluster Region 1470 (S15W57) and Region 1471 (S19W50). This sunspot complex produced an M1/1n x-ray event at 07/1431Z. Multiple discrete radio frequency bursts were associated with this event, as well as a 240 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. These characteristics, as well as COR2 imagery from the STEREO A spacecraft suggest an Earth directed CME. Initial analysis suggests only a weak disturbance of the Earths magnetic field. Earlier in the day around 07/0400Z, another CME was observed in STEREO A imagery but after analysis, it was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 1476 continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity as it rotates further onto the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (08 - 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) as a solar sector boundary crossing is expected, as well as possible effects from a weak CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 05 May. Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active levels are expected on day two (09 May), as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels are expected on day three (10 May) as effect from the CH HSS continue with the possible arrival of todays CME.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 122
  Predicted    08 May-10 May  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        07 May 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  004/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  007/007-009/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%40%
Minor storm 01%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%45%40%
Minor storm 01%20%25%
Major-severe storm 01%05%10%

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