Viewing archive of Friday, 27 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1n
flare at 27/0824Z from Region 1466 (N11W38). Other activity
consisted of single, low-level C-class flares from Regions 1459
(S19W88), 1465 (S17W53), 1467 (N11E32), 1469 (S24E28) and 1466.
During the period, Region 1465 developed into a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration while the remaining regions showed little
change. Numerous non-Earth directed CMEs were observed off the SW
limb over the past 24 hours, all originating from old Region 1462
(S25, L=139) which rotated around the west on 24 April.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(28 - 30 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Through the
period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily decreased from about 560
km/s to near 500km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was variable between +/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(28 - 30 April).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 118 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 017/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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