Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1459 (S16W65)
produced a C1 x-ray event at 25/0224Z while Region 1460 (N15W81)
produced a C3/Sf at 25/1215Z. Region 1465 (S17W26) indicated
consolidation in both its leader and trailer spots. The region
appeared to have lost its gamma and delta magnetic configuration,
but still maintained an east to west oriented inversion line. No
discernible changes were noted in the remaining regions. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (26 - 28 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions
with an isolated high latitude severe storm period observed during
25/0600Z - 0900Z. This activity was due to coronal hole high speed
stream affects (CH HSS). Over the past 24 hours, solar wind
velocities gradually increased from about 600 km/s to near 800 km/s.
Total field strength (Bt) varied between 5 to 12 nT while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly south
from -4 to -10 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
periods on day one (26 April) as the 23 April CME is expected to
become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods are expected on day two (27 April) as effects of the CME
wane. By day three (28 April), mostly quiet conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 127 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 030/043 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 018/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 017/025-011/015-004/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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