Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 April 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Occasional low-level C-class flares occurred. Region 1459 (S15W25 - Dki/beta) produced a single C-class flare and showed signs of gradual decay in its intermediate portion. Region 1465 (S18E14 - Dai/beta) produced two C-class flares and showed spot and penumbral development as well as some polarity mixing in its intermediate portion. New Region 1466 (N12E29 - Cso/beta) emerged early in the period and gradually grew. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (23 - 25 April) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with a brief interval of active levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (23 - 24 April) with a chance for active levels due mainly to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Weak CME-passage effects are also possible on day 1 from the partial-halo CME observed on 19 April. Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 148
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  010/010-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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