Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV
radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have
originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days
beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each
produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth
in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1
flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an
Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if
the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01,
Bxo-Beta) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with
a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector
boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 -
22 April).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Apr 138 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 007/008-004/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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