Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 April 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C7 x-ray flare at 19/1126Z associated with Types II and IV radio sweeps and a non-Earth-directed CME. This event may have originated in old Region 1455 (N05, L=206), now about two days beyond the west limb. Regions 1460 (N16W01) and 1463 (S26W49) each produced a low-level C-class flare. Region 1460 showed spot growth in its intermediate portion. Region 1462 (S24W31) produced a C1 flare at 19/1515Z associated with a CME that may have had an Earthward component. Further analysis is required to determine if the CME is likely to be geoeffective. New Region 1464 (N23E01, Bxo-Beta) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during days 1 - 3 (20 - 22 April) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (20 April) with a chance for brief active levels due to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing. Quiet levels are expected during days 2- 3 (21 - 22 April).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 138
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  007/008-004/005-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%15%15%
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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