Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. An emerging flux region was numbered today as Region 1455 (N07E08) and was magnetically classified as a beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active conditions for the next three days (12-14 April) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 093
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  008/012-007/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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