Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. A new region, Region 1454 (S13E70), was numbered today as
it rotated onto the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (11 - 13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
varied around 320 - 360 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 April) as
effects from a CME, observed on 7 April, are possible. Quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for active levels are expected on
days two and three (12 - 13 April) as a coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 093 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 007/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 007/008-008/012-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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