Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. A new region, Region 1454 (S13E70), was numbered today as it rotated onto the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (11 - 13 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, varied around 320 - 360 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 April) as effects from a CME, observed on 7 April, are possible. Quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active levels are expected on days two and three (12 - 13 April) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 093
  Predicted    11 Apr-13 Apr  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  007/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  006/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  007/008-008/012-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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