Viewing archive of Monday, 9 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours with two C-class events observed. Region 1450 (N15W90)
produced a C2 event at 0122Z. Around the vicinity of plage Region
1451 (N17W73), a C3 x-ray event was observed at 1244Z. Associated
with this event were both a Type II radio sweep, with an estimated
plane of sky velocity of 767 km/s and a west-limb CME, first visible
in LASCO C2 imagery at 1325Z. Initial analysis indicates the CME,
associated with this event, is non-Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next
three days (10 - 12 April) as Regions 1452 (N18W51) and 1451
continue to weaken and rotate off the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 April) and at quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (11-12 April), as possible
CME effects and the arrival of elevated solar wind from a favorable
positioned coronal hole arrive.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 095 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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