Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N15W31) produced a B9 flare at 05/1327Z and a C3/1f
flare at 05/1624Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next three days (06-08 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours with minor to severe storm periods at high latitudes. The
increased activity was associated with periods of sustained
southward IMF Bz and increased IMF Bt associated with intermittent
solar sector boundary changes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (6 April) due to the
weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that
occurred on 02 April. The field is expected to return to quiet
levels on day two (7 April), then be at quiet to unsettled levels
due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective on day
three (8 April).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 101 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
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