Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N17W19) produced a C1 flare at 04/1627Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with C-class flares likely for the next three days (05-07
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (05 April) due to a
weak CME that was associated with the filament eruption that
occurred on 02 April. Days two and three (06-07 April) are expected
to return to quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 102 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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