Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare was observed from Region 1451 (N17E53) at 30/2112Z. New Region 1451 was a simple Cro type group with a beta magnetic configuration. New Region 1450 (N15E38) was also numbered and also a Cro type group with beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were quiet and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. An isolated C-class flare is likely with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from around 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to 350 km/s at the end of the period. Bz was generally neutral. ACE data suggested a solar sector boundary crossing from negative to positive sector around 31/14Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagentic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (01-03 April).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 110
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  115/115/120
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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