Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1/Sf flare was
observed from Region 1451 (N17E53) at 30/2112Z. New Region 1451 was
a simple Cro type group with a beta magnetic configuration. New
Region 1450 (N15E38) was also numbered and also a Cro type group
with beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were
quiet and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. An isolated C-class flare is likely with a
slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft ranged from around 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to 350 km/s at the end of the period. Bz was generally neutral. ACE data suggested a solar sector boundary crossing from negative to positive sector around 31/14Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagentic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (01-03
April).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 110 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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