Viewing archive of Friday, 30 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Areas of plage and a few small spots have rotated onto the visible
disk near the area of old Region 1429, but this region isnt as
impressive as anticipated. There were two eruptive filaments from
the northern hemisphere, one at 29/1800Z and another at 30/1436Z
that were associated with CMEs, neither of which is expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 111 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 115/120/120 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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