Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels. There were six C-class flares over the past 24 hours with five of these originating from old Region 1429 (N19, L=299) which is just beginning to rotate into view as of forecast issue time. The largest flare was a C7 that occurred at 29/0953Z and originated from old Region 1429. New Region 1449 (S18W17) was numbered today and is a D-class spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class flare. Old Region 1429 will rotate onto the visible disk, increasing the probabilities for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (30 March - 1 April)
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 112
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr  120/130/135
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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